How we calculate the probability that a streak will continue or end. Our algorithm analyzes multiple aspects of each upcoming match to produce transparent, data-driven estimates.
Statistical principle: longer streaks are more likely to break. The algorithm assigns continuation scores based on streak length:
Based on the opponent's current league position. The algorithm calculates a normalized position score:
Example: Facing the 1st place team (out of 20) = 95 score (very hard opponent). Facing the 20th place team = 0 score (easy opponent).
Considers whether the streak was built at home or away, and where the next match is played:
Analyzes the last 5 meetings between these two teams and calculates how often the streak type was maintained:
For example, if a team is on a win streak and won 4 of the last 5 meetings vs this opponent, the H2H score would be 80% (4/5 matches).
The algorithm checks the specific streak type (win, BTTS, over 2.5 goals, etc.) in those historical matches.
Evaluates the team's performance in their last 5 finished matches:
Maximum score = 15 points (5 wins). Score = (actual points / 15) × 100
The final probability is calculated using weighted average:
The result is then:
A team with an 8-game home win streak, playing the 15th place team (out of 20) at home, with 3 wins in last 5 H2H meetings, and recent form of 9/15 points:
Total: 22 + 6.25 + 12.75 + 6 + 6 = 53% continue probability (47% end probability)
